Summary
In politics, 60 days after seizing power in the coup d’état, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) chaired by Army General Prayuth Chan-Ocha has continued with the creation and implementation of reform policies, as well as the drafting of a charter for an interim government set to assume responsibilities for governing the Kingdom in September. Under the interim charter, the NCPO will act in an advisory capacity while continuing to hold responsibility for national security and the maintenance of order. While martial law remains in effect, the NCPO has just recently relaxed some of the restrictions on the Thai media initially imposed after the May 22 coup, following the issuance of increasingly restrictive orders and harsh warnings against journalists’ criticism of the NCPO. Former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has left the country for a European holiday after being granted permission to travel by the NCPO despite the National Anti-Corruption Commission’s recommendation that she face charges relating to her administration’s handling of the rice-pledging scheme.
In security, refugee rights’ groups have expressed concern over the military government’s plan to close nine refugee camps bordering Myanmar, and to send all inhabitants, numbering over 100,000, back to their country. Following the mass-exodus of illegal Cambodian migrant workers from Thailand following the military coup in May, numbers have been returning, but not all legally. The police arrested a group of 72 men, woman, and children illegally crossing the border into Sa Kaeo province in order to return to their previous jobs. In the South of Thailand, attacks continue, urging further security measures, and peace negotiations with the BRN. Finally, His Majesty the King has officially endorsed General Prayuth to be in charge of all national-security related matters.
In economy, the MPC expects economic growth in 2015 to be primarily through the private and public sector. The Foreign Trade Department and their partners are negotiating about new methods of selling rice. New guidelines in tax reform from the NCPO will help SMEs to stay more competitive. The EU excluded Thailand from the European Union’s Generalized System of Preferences, because of their position as a new industrialized country. Big EU supermarket chains boycott Charoen Pokphand Foods because of forced labor and bad work conditions to migrants. Thailand starts to allow foreign investors to launch initial public offerings (IPOs).
Politics
(Source: Business Times)
60 days into its intervention, the NCPO has continued to define, expand, and implement its policies, while completing the drafting of an interim charter. The charter establishes a transitional government, scheduled to take over responsibility for governing the Kingdom beginning in September. Under the interim charter, the NCPO will assume an advisory role, while still holding direct responsibility for the security and maintenance of order in the country. General Prayuth was granted an audience with His Majesty the King who issued a royal endorsement for the interim charter. The highlights of the charter include an amnesty for the NCPO and anyone acting on its orders after May 22, a section detailing the various duties of the new interim government, and a provision granting the NCPO “special powers” to deal with “uncontrollable situations.” It also outlines the procedures and timeline governing the creation of a National Legislative Assembly, a committee for drafting a permanent charter, and for the appointment of an assembly president. General Prayuth has not ruled out assuming the role of Prime Minister under the transitional administration (Bangkok Post).
The military government has maintained, and in some cases extended its tight control over national media, arguing that such restrictions are necessary to prevent the spread of misinformation which could hamper efforts to achieve national reconciliation. These restrictions had also prevented criticism of the NCPO and its policies through all types of media. However, reversing a trend in the issuance of increasingly restrictive directives on media freedom, the NCPO recently relaxed its stance on criticism of its rule, allowing, “honest criticism, with good faith intentions,” of its polices. It also hinted that it may further relax restrictions and penalties for media violations of the orders currently in place after the Thai Journalists Association (TJA) expressed concerns that such restrictions prevented the Thai media from fulfilling its responsibility of providing information to Thai citizens. (Bangkok Post)
In order to further promote one of the primary goals of its intervention, national reconciliation, the NCPO has organized a “reconciliation fair” being held at Sanam Luang, featuring music, movie screenings, and discussion panels, as well as art and cultural shows. A similarly-themed event will be held in the Ratchaprasong area over the weekend. (Bangkok Post)
The Thai Immigration Bureau has begun implementing stricter immigration regulations for certain groups of foreigners staying long-term in the Kingdom, with the full enforcement of the new rules taking effect August 12. The new regulations will authorize immigration officers to deny entry to foreigners with a history of back-to-back visa exemption entries or back to back tourist visas, if it appears that they may be engaging in activities other than tourism, such as illegal employment. The Immigration Bureau has also announced increased penalties for overstays depending on the length of overstay. (The Nation, Royal Thai Immigration Bureau Website).
In the north, Chiang Mai Provincial Governor Suriya Prasatbandit and Major General Sarayuth Rangsi, head of Chiang Mai’s military peace-maintenance force, announced that the province, long known for being a red shirt stronghold and central support base for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has left behind color-coded politics. Through the deployment of community relations teams to facilitate open forums in which opposing sides could express their views openly, Maj. Gen. Sarayuth claims that people understand the need to unify and move forward together. Some red shirt supporters, who wished to remain anonymous, disagreed, claiming instead that they have merely chosen to stay quiet for now, waiting until the time comes that they can express themselves again. A Saturday evening shooting of a former red-shirt leader in the province’s San Khampaeng district raised doubts as to the political pacification of the area, even as local police attributed the incident to rivalries between former red-shirt factions (Bangkok Post).
Former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinwatra has left the Kingdom, reportedly heading for destinations in Germany, Belgium, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States after being granted permission by the NCPO for her cooperation, although she is required to return by August 10. She is believed to be visiting Paris, France for the July 26 birthday of her brother, Thaksin Shinawatra who was deposed by the military in 2006, and is currently living in self-imposed exile after being convicted and sentenced to prison time in absentia for corruption during his tenure. Her permission to travel was granted despite the National Anti-Corruption Commission’s (NACC) recommendation to the Office of the Attorney General that she face charges related to her administration’s handling of the rice pledging scheme, which has been plagued by reports of massive corruption, fraud and graft. According to a recent poll conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), the majority of respondents doubted that Yingluck would return by August 10. (Bangkok Post)
Security
(Source: VOA)
General Prayuth announced on Friday, July 11 that they plan to repatriate refugees from nine different camps back to Myanmar, sparking fears among refugee rights groups concerned for their safety and livelihood. The plan was announced following a meeting with Myanmar Supreme Commander General Min Aung Hlaing and could affect over 100,000 refugees currently living in Mae Hong Son, Tak, Kanchanaburi, and Ratchaburi provinces. There are around 2 million Burmese migrant workers in Thailand, the largest number of migrant laborers in the country. (The Bangkok Post)
Supang Chantavanich, Director of the Asian Research centre for Migration at Chulalongkorn University, urges there to be increased consultation between the Thai government and the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR), in addition to assurance from the Myanmar government that peace negotiations between conflicting ethnic minorities in Myanmar will be addressed so the refugees can return without the fear of prosecution. She also stated that there must be sufficient plans put in place to ensure a sustainable livelihood for those returning. Other rights groups have expressed fears that neither Thailand nor Myanmar are in stable enough conditions to sufficiently carry this out, lacking the necessary infrastructure to guarantee a smooth return. (Bangkok Post)
General Prayuth has so far left out details on the conditions for repatriation, or on the time frame for the action, but states that, in cooperation with the Myanmar government they will “facilitate the safe return to their homeland in accordance with human rights principles.” It has been stated by another army source that all nine camps will be completely closed, and every refugee returned, in order to end the “chronic security problems posed by the refugees”. In a press release from Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, they emphasize their commitment to preparedness in matters of sustainability, and plans to coordinate talks with relevant actors such as the UNHCR. A summit will be held with Myanmar officials on August 1-3 to start preparations for the refugees’ return. (Reuters) (Chiangrai Times)
Meanwhile, 72 Cambodian migrants were arrested by the police after a tip-off in Sa Kaeo province on Tuesday, July 15, for entering Thailand illegally. The group included 39 men, 26 woman, five boys and two girls, and had come from various provinces in Cambodia. They had been part of the mass-exodus from Thailand back to Cambodia after the military coup in May, and had planned to return to their construction jobs in Thailand now the situation was considered safer. They told police that they could not afford the 3,000-3,500 baht border pass fee. The migrants were handed over to immigration police for repatriation. (Bangkok Post)
In the South of Thailand, the situation remains unstable and further casualties and deaths have been reported in these past two weeks. A large manhunt for the gunmen who carried out a shooting of a deputy police chief and his two subordinates has been launched, with over 100 police and military personnel involved in the search. The attack took place in Yala, on July 10, as the three victims returned from evening Ramadan prayers at the local mosque in Krong Pinang district. While the police claimed it the likely work of southern insurgents, friends, religious leaders, and other locals expressed their disagreement that they would be a target of such groups. The police deputy chief killed in the attack was well known and respected for his work in tackling narcotics, and applying Islamic principles to engage with drug-addicted youth in southern villages. (Bangkok Post)
In Narathiwat, attacks include a bomb explosion on July 12, injuring one ranger. On July 13 a drive-by shooting targeted and killed a female civilian, and on July 17 a local defense volunteer was shot dead in Reuso district as he drove home on his motorcycle. Also in Narathiwat, two teenagers were shot at whilst riding motorcycles in Sungai Padi district, resulting in injuries (one of them serious). In Pattani, a man was shot dead in Nong Chick District on July 15, on his way to the mosque, and on July 17 in Thung Yang daeng district, three suspected insurgents were killed, and four policemen injured in a fierce gunfight originating when the attackers opened fire on a police booth. In all cases, no suspects have yet been identified, and victims of the attacks include both Malay-Muslims and Thai-Buddhists. (Bangkok Post)
In efforts of the NCPO to address the southern situation, they have approved a plan proposed by the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre (SBPAC) to build fences around schools in high-risk areas, to protect teachers and children from being easy targets. Increasing the number of CCTV cameras is also in action. Furthermore, with the urging need to find a political solution to the conflict, the NCPO has vowed to continue peace negotiations with the separatists, with talks already underway with the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN). Issues to be addressed include the mutual mistrust experienced by both sides in past efforts. Few further details have been released. (Bangkok Post)
On Wednesday July 23, His Majesty the King endorsed the provisional charter which, under Article 44, officially puts General Prayuth in charge of all matters related to national security. This gives him overarching powers to suppress any action he deems a threat to the Kingdom’s security, monarchy, national peace, or the economy, be it from within or from outside the country. Furthermore, Article 48 gives the NCPO amnesty for carrying out the coup in May. (The Nation)
Economy
(Source: AsiaISU)
Bangkok is one of the top 10 Asia-Pacific tourist regions with 16.42 million visitors per year, and the second in the world, behind London (18.69 visitors per year). About 42% of the visitors to Bangkok come from far outside regions. Tourism plays a significant role in the economy of the Southeast Asian countries related to investments and benefit from trade and tourism. (The Nation)
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects an economic growth of 5.5% next year – on the one hand through the private sector but especially from the public sector such as the tourism industry which is expected to return to normality in the high season. Although the export growth was slower than expected, the MPC has forecast a growth of 3.4% for the second half of the year 2014 and has claimed there is nothing to worry about relating to the economy. (The Nation)
The Foreign Trade Department is negotiating with trading partners and rice traders to change the methods of selling rice. Thailand already has a sales contract with China for 1 million tons of rice per year, and in August the Department wants to restart the rice-selling program suspended after the National Council for Peace and Order took power, and plans to sell 500,000 – 600,000 tons of rice a month. Because of concerns in the quality of the stockpiles the government sent about 100 in-depth rice inspection teams to check the stocks. Isara Vongkusolkit, Chairman of BoT (Board of Trade) and Thai Chamber of Commerce, said that the rice industry needs long-term development. At a public-private joint standing committee meeting led by NCPO chief General Prayuth Chan-Ocha, five strategies have been discussed: 1. Promoting the “sufficiency economy” philosophy; 2. Adopting modern farming technology to increase productivity and reduce costs; 3. Promoting alternative economic crops; 4. Supporting research and development on rice-seed quality; and 5. Supporting market liberalization by allowing private enterprises to trade rice with no intervention by the government. In Thailand, 27 out of 70 million rai are not suitable for rice cultivation. Vichai Assarasakorn, Vice Chairman of the chamber, said the government should set up a fund to help rice farmers for the long-term. (The Nation)
The NCPO will invest in infrastructure and try to find ways of easing tax collection for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to stay competitive. The corporate income tax had been reduced to 20% which dampens the competitiveness of SMEs. The military regime has therefore made guidelines for reform to strengthen a) fairness in the system, b) to increase the responsibility of large business operators, c) to address weaknesses in the existing tax system and d) to meet government revenue collection targets. The NCPO announced that the current value-added tax (VAT) rate of 7% will be extended until 1 of October, 2015. Analysts suggest a ceiling of 10% which would mean that consumers would pay more for goods and services. Experts are also suggesting implementing a land tax, especially on wealthy individuals who are hoarding land for speculations. Thailand still has to fight against the gap between rich and poor. Thai industries hope that economic measures, which they have proposed to the Joint Public Private Committee and the NCPO will improve the competitiveness of small and medium companies and help fix underdevelopment in the South. The Thai Industrial Standards Institute (Tisi) invested 730 million Baht for the improvement of industrial standards for more competitiveness in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and global markets. (Bangkok Post, The Nation)
Next year, prices are expected to increase as Thai traders will have higher costs from rising tariffs. Compared to its neighbors like Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar or Bangladesh, Thailand is not categorized as a less developed country anymore and will be excluded from the European Union’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) for 723 products. Thailand will look for other possibilities to boost its economy. In August it is expected, that the Kingdom will sign into the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement, which will help facilitate more trade. (The Nation)
Because of Thailand’s problem in human trafficking, forced labor, and a neglect to provide fair wages and benefits to migrant workers, Spain’s Alcampo supermarket has joined the EU push against Charoen Pokphand Foods and stopped placing orders for all products from CPF like other big European chains, for example Carrefour (France), Aldi (Germany), Colruyt and Delhaize (Belgium), Mercadona (Spain) and ICA (Norway). (The Nation)
Thailand starts to make the Thai capital market more attractive for foreign investors by allowing them to launch initial public offerings (IPOs) and offering of equities. On July 21, 2014, secretary general Vorapol Socatiyanurak said: “One way to support that is to ensure that our capital market can also serve as a fund-raising channel for the expansion of foreign businesses and economics while providing a variety of investment choices for investors.” There are primary offerings, where companies have shares and become listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), and dual offerings, where foreign companies launch IPOs abroad at almost the same time. Conditions are that equity offerings must comply with the regulations in the home jurisdiction and laws on shareholder protection must be equivalent to those in Thailand. Furthermore, two Thai nationals must be on the board of directors and financial statements must be prepared with International Financial Reporting Standards. (The Nation)
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