Two clear peaks in violence over past year
October 2013 proved to be a calmer month than expected despite the anniversary of the Tak Bai incident and the founding anniversaries of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) and Pattani United Liberation Organisation (Pulo). Although much lower than October of last year, casualties exceed the number for the past three months with 31 reported fatalites and 40 persons injured. Over the past 1.5 years, there were two peaks in casualties; one in September 2012 when a large bomb attack in Sai Buri district injured over 50 persons and again in March 2013 when a wave of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attacks followed the announcement of peace talks between the BRN and the Thai government. Bombings with IEDs or vehicle bombs are the main cause of unrest-related injury, causing 75 % of all injuries over the past 6 months. On the other hand, shootings are most likely to have a deadly outcome, and stand for 72 % of deaths related to the insurgency.
Increased violence in Yala province since BRN peace talks
When comparing the period since the BRN peace talks with the corresponding eight-month period before, a striking change can be noted in the distribution of casualties across the four affected provinces. While Pattani and Narathiwat provinces have seen lower figures since the start of negotiations between the militant group and the Thai government, violence has instead doubled in Yala province. Over the past eight months, Yala has accounted for 26 % of the total number of killed or injured in southern Thailand.
Three districts in Yala have since the peace negotiations found their way to the top 10 list of the highest amount of casualties. Previously, only Yaha district had been among the top ten whereas over the past few months, Muang and Krong Pinang districts ranked second and third while Bannang Sata district enters on place 10.
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