On July 22nd, 2024, Philippines President Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos Jr. (PBBM) delivered his third State of the Nation Address (SONA). It was an opportune moment for the head of state to underline the significant progress made in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) under his administration towards the peace process. He reaffirmed the government’s dedication to honoring and fully complying with its remaining deliverables and commitments under the peace agreements.[1] He also emphasized the significant progress in Marawi’s rehabilitation [2], stressing that efforts are now focused on reimplementing energy, water, and livable communities. Chief Minister Ahod Ebrahim praised the continued collaboration with the national government to enact essential laws.
New dynamics are emerging in Southeast Asian terrorism trends as historic groups surrender and scatter
The number of incidents linked to terrorist groups in BARMM is significantly decreasing. This month, the death toll related to security issues reached a total of six people, including the death of a Moro group commander in Datu Odin Sinsuat, Maguindanao del Norte. His death occurred during one of the three reported clan feuds this month. In addition to other events, only one attack against a representative was reported this month in Barangay Rosary Heights VIII, Cotabato City. The province of Maguindanao del Sur was surprisingly calm during July. However, on July 20th, 2024, a soldier was killed in an ambush by members of Dawlah Islamiyah (DI) in Barangay Pagatin. The news magazine Philstar reported that the ambush was carried out by approximately 20 DI terrorists led by Ben Harris Salamat—alias Nakan—a man on the run from the police for murder and other criminal allegations. Nakan managed to escape after government forces returned fire, wounding at least three of them [3].
The Soufan Center highlighted in their July brief on “Terrorism Trends in Southeast Asia” the significant strides in combating terrorism and the growing peace resulting from changing regional dynamics distancing from the Islamic State. As a result, Jemaah Islamiyah’s leaders announced their disbandment on June 30th. According to research by Najwa Indanan Unga, militants have been surrendering due to exhaustion, loss of public support, disillusionment, and the changing political context, with regional autonomy taking shape in Muslim Mindanao. However, it is too soon to declare victory over terrorism, as the threat remains in the form of remnants and small, scattered, quasi-independent cells. The Soufan Center also highlights how IS claimed credit for approximately 20 small attacks in the Philippines targeting national representatives.
Ongoing Peacebuilding and Infrastructure Efforts Amid Election Preparations
The transition government’s short and medium-term priorities are focused on the May 2025 parliamentary elections. On July 20th, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) announced the creation of the Task Force “Katotohanan, Katapatan at Katarungan (KKK)” to combat misinformation generated by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and cyberattacks [4].
The transition government continues to invest substantial effort and funding into peacebuilding programs. The Ministry of Social Services and Development (MSSD) is launching a large-scale financial support campaign. In Tawi-Tawi, they organized a six-day payout for social pensions, which have been increased from PHP 500 (approx. USD 8.80) to PHP 1,000 (approx. USD 17.50) per month. MSSD is also scheduling payouts for other programs on the islands, such as a PHP 95.5 million (USD 16.7 million) housing project.
However, the number of internally displaced persons remains high, further exacerbated by the typhoon season, which is hindering the BARMM government’s ability to implement development policies.
Tensions go north as the Philippines changes tactics by strengthening regional partnerships
After the dramatic incident in July, where a Filipino officer lost his finger within the waters of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and China introduced a new regulation empowering its coast guard to detain foreigners, the anxiety among Filipino fishing communities and coast guards significantly increased. In this context, against all odds, the Philippines and China have reached a ‘provisional arrangement’ on the Rotation and Resupply (RoRe) missions to the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal.
Chief of staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, Gen. Romeo Brawner (left), and Yoshihide Yoshida, chief of staff of the Joint Staff of the Self-Defense Forces, in Manila in July | AFP-JIJI
Both nations recognize the urgent need to de-escalate growing tensions in the West Philippine Sea through dialogue and cooperation. Even if both countries appear to be open to discussion, the reality is quite different and none of them are letting their guard down. China has deployed an aircraft carrier in the WPS, while Manila hosted the 2+2 meeting with Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs Yoko Kamikawa and Minister of Defense Minoru Kihara at the beginning of July to sign the Reciprocal Access Agreement, which facilitates joint exercises and interoperability [5]. Japan has no claim in the South China Sea. However, it strongly relies on the region for shipping and fishing.
Citations
[1] PBBM,s SONA highlights significant progress in BARMM; Bangsamoro leaders react, Julit 24, 2024. Bangsamoro Information Office, https://bangsamoro.gov.ph/news/latest-news/pbbms-sona-highlights-significant-progress-in-barmm-bangsamoro-leaders-react/ [2] Marawi is the capital city of Lanano Del Sur province in BARMM. It has long been home to the region’s terrorist cells. It was particularly affected by violent conflicts, and by the Marawi battle (May-October 2017). [3] “Solider killed in terror attack”, John Felix M. Unson, Business World, July 22, 2024. https://www.bworldonline.com/the-nation/2024/07/22/609662/soldier-killed-in-terror-attack/ [4] “Task Force ‘KKK sa Halalan’ formed vs AI-driven mis/disinformation’, Ferdinand Patinio, Philippine News Agency, July 20, 2024, https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1229400 [5] “Defense, security isses get spotlight as Manila hosts 2+2 meet with Japan”, Bea Cupin, Rappler, Jue, 28th, 2024. https://www.rappler.com/philippines/manila-host-meet-japan-july-2024/
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