The United States (U.S.) and China have a long and complex history. Initially – in the 18th and 19th centuries – relations were mainly trade-focused, the turning point arose with the Opium Wars and issues of imperialism. The U.S. recognized the Nationalist government in Taiwan after the Chinese Civil War in 1949, when the Communist Party established the People’s Republic of China. The Cold War era was marked by hostile relations, but President Nixon’s visit to China in 1972 led to diplomatic recognition in 1979, and subsequently to P5 status in the UN. Today, the U.S.-China relationship has become an economic rivalry tainted by issues such as trade disputes, human rights, and security concerns. 2024 brought an increase in tension after the U.S. shot down a Chinese spy balloon.
If Kamala Harris and the Democrats Party wins
Presidential candidate Kamala Harris, during her presidential campaign, has on multiple occasions demonstrated her vision of U.S.-China relations through her commitment to “responsibly managing” bilateral ties and the overall discourse of “de-risking”1. This entails not provoking confrontation or conflict, for Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris, while protecting American citizens from US-defined unfair trade practices by China.
Economics-wise, the global consensus over Kamala Harris’ possible future policies towards China is that she will continue President Biden’s tariff policy and, although it is not advocated, presidential candidate Harris embraces her predecessor’s protectionism and maintaining of trade taxes1. She has also repeated many times how the U.S. “wins the competition for the 21st century” and “strengthens [their] global leadership”2.
One of the main focuses of Kamala Harris regarding China is Human Rights abuses, she co-sponsored the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act and other similar Acts in Congress and is committed to U.S. ties with Taiwan, as well as the promotion of peace in the Indo-Pacific. She has had a clear behavior towards China, marking her disapproval of China’s Xi Jinping and making it clear how she will stand up for her allies “in the face of China’s threats”2. Likewise, she is straightforward in her commitment to their One China policy, to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and to ensuring that no changes to the status quo are made.
On the Democrats Party manifesto, China appears in the very last section “Strengthening American Leadership Worldwide” after the Europe and Indo-Pacific subsections, showing the prioritization of the Party. They recognize the People’s Republic of China as “the only global actor that combines the intention to fundamentally reshape the U.S.-led international order with an increasing military, economic, diplomatic, and technological capacity to do so”2. What is taken from the China section of their manifesto is the intention of the Party to strengthen their alliances to counter China’s influence in the region while not seeking conflict. It is also stated that in the world’s interest, they would collaborate with China on issues like climate change and fentanyl trafficking. Thus, the main effect, outside of the very likely economic effects, for China, if Kamala Harris wins, is in case of a Chinese move over Taiwan or if the U.S. decides that China has become too powerful in the Indo-Pacific.
If Donald Trump and the Republican Party wins
Donald Trump has a long history of antagonizing China and calling it “the biggest threat to the U.S.”1, as well as singling out the so-called “axis of evil” China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.
Economics-wise, the overall Republican Party’s position is that taxing Chinese imports will solve the U.S. national debt and domestic economic growth. Thus, they are planning to increase taxes and tariffs on imports and exports. Moreover, it is stated in the Republican Party campaign website Project 2025, in the forewords, that “economic engagement with China should be ended, not rethought”.
Regarding Taiwan, Presidential candidate Donald Trump has expressed that, although their consistent military support will remain and they will work to deepen their bilateral ties, Taiwan should pay for U.S. protection1.
In his campaign manifesto, Agenda 47, Presidential Candidate Donald Trump states “the Republicans will revoke China’s Most Favored Nation Status”3 in the World Trade Organization and “stop China from buying American Real Estate and Industries”3. Likewise, “countering China” is mentioned in second place in their plan to return Peace through Strength, right after the rebuilding of the U.S. military alliances3. In terms of effect on China in case of a Republican win, the important part China represents in the U.S. foreign investments would decrease substantially, in addition, an important part of these real estate investments are located in residential areas surrounding military facilities, which would also most likely suffer from a considerable decrease. If it is approved, revoking China’s Most Favored Nation status would single the country out for less advantageous trade policy, and thus most likely impact the already tense diplomatic relations between the two countries.
Which conclusions can we draw from Donald Trump’s last presidential term?
Former President Donald Trump started a trade war in 2018, imposing tariffs on billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods. In retaliation, Beijing responded with tariffs until 2020 when it was halted by a “Phase One” trade deal. By the time President Trump’s term was over, the results were mixed. The bilateral trade deficit with China fell from $419 billion in 2018 to $311 billion in 2020, while the total U.S. trade deficit soared to its highest since 2008, $679 billion1.
What Donald Trump’s team gets away from this is that they didn’t go far enough and propose to raise taxes on imports to 60% or more and levy 10-20% on all imports9. What this will most likely mean for China – in case of a Republican victory in the election – is the continuity of these trade policies, but stronger and with more important taxes imposed on their imports.
What about the Chinese point of view?
Neither candidate is particularly interesting for China. While looking for more possibilities of cooperation, the Democrat candidate also has strong convictions regarding the Indo-Pacific and strong deep ties with Taiwan, both being in opposition to the Chinese’s interests. The Republican candidate, on the other hand, presents a very unpredictable nature which could deepen the tensions between the two countries, although his isolationist approach to foreign affairs might benefit the Chinese government. Kamala Harris seems altogether to be the “lesser evil”10 of the two candidates, although her predecessor President Biden was very successful in building partnerships opposite China’s interests. Overall, the main effect on China will most likely be the strengthening of import taxes, and the rising diplomatic tensions
Conclusion
Comparing both parties over the China factor in the U.S. Presidential Election reveals how similar their opinions are. Both presidential candidates currently have a strong “anti-China” policy although stronger and clearer on the Republican side. Both parties and candidates also recognize how the U.S. economic goals are linked to China. Likewise, both candidates have condemned human rights violence committed by the Chinese authorities, especially against the Uygur minority in Xinjiang and pro-democracy figures in Hong Kong.
The overall conclusion we can find is that for both candidates, the objective is to weaken their economic ties to China and as such make the U.S. less dependent on the Chinese market. What this means for China, is mainly the weakening of their economic relations, most likely through additional taxes and trade tariffs. The main conflict areas remain within the Indo-Pacific region specifically over Taiwan’s sovereignty and China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. These geopolitical issues make up the difference between the two parties. Kamala Harris seems very intent on protecting her ties in the Indo-Pacific, and keeping her predecessor Joe Biden’s approach in the region. Additionally, Donald Trump has declared his foreign policy strategy to be “unpredictable” for everyone, whether it regards his allies or his enemies.
Sources:
1 https://time.com/7020042/trump-harris-china-explainer-trade-tariffs-taiwan-war-human-rights/
2 The Democrats Party official manifesto,
https://kamalaharris.com/issues/
3 The Republican Party official manifesto, Agenda 47:
https://rncplatform.donaldjtrump.com/?_gl=1*qe2w9v*_gcl_au*NTUzNTk1Mjk2LjE3MjkxNDgzNDc.&_ga=2.178395693.803315172.1729148348-104535592.1729148347
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