Since the military coup in 2021, Myanmar has descended into a complex civil war, with various factions struggling for control and influence over the nation’s future. At the center of this conflict is the Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group that has grown significantly in strength and political importance since its founding in 2009. The AA has emerged as a key player in the struggle for autonomy and self-determination for the ethnic Rakhine people amid Myanmar’s unstable political landscape.
Formation of the Arakan Army (AA)
The Arakan Army (AA)/United League of Arakan (AA/ULA) is an ethnic armed organization (EAO) based in Rakhine State, Myanmar. AA was established in April 2009 by ethnic Rakhine leaders, including Twan Mrat Naing, initially supported by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). Composed mostly of Rakhine men from Kachin jade mines, the AA formed in response to the centralized control of Rakhine State to seek greater autonomy. After gaining combat experience with the KIA, they returned to Rakhine in 2014. The AA garnered national attention with an attack on police stations on January 4, 2019. While designated a terrorist group during Aung San Suu Kyi’s government, they paused fighting for a time but resumed after the 2021 coup. By early 2024, the AA claimed over 30,000 fighters and control of about 80% of Rakhine State.
Strategic Alliances and Cooperation
Alliance with the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA):
The Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) includes the Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) was formed in 2019. The alliance emerged from the efforts of these groups, which had fought against the Myanmar military since the 2010s. Initially underestimated, the Brotherhood Alliance grew into a powerful force with around 45,000 to 50,000 troops. Over time, they formed close ties with other ethnic armed organizations and even China, which pushed for dialogue between the alliance and the Myanmar military. In 2022, talks were held in Mongla between the junta and the Brotherhood Alliance, with China urging a ceasefire for stability. Among the Three Brotherhood Alliance, Kokang (MNDAA) invests heavily in operations, but the AA holds a stronger geopolitical position due to its proximity to Bangladesh and India. The AA also had forces in Karen and SSPP areas, gaining support and supplies through cooperation with various ethnic armed groups.
Cooperation with the Northern Alliance:
The Northern Alliance consists of four ethnic armed groups in Myanmar: the Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Kachin Independence Army (KIA). Formed in 2016, the Northern Alliance aims to collaborate both militarily and politically against the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) to advocate for ethnic rights and autonomy. While its members are predominantly active in the northern regions of Myanmar, particularly in areas like Shan State and Kachin State, the exact geographical reach of the Northern Alliance can extend into neighboring regions, including parts of Rakhine State where the AA operate.
Joining the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC):
The Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) is an alliance of seven ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in Myanmar, founded in April 2017 as an alternative to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). Led by the United Wa State Army (UWSA), it includes the Arakan Army (AA), Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA), and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA). FPNCC formed for coordinating and balancing between Naypyidaw and Beijing. However, UWSA has increasingly used the committee as a tool to expand its own interests in Northern Shan State. After the 2021 coup and the joint 1027 Operation, tensions grew over territorial control and administrative power, especially among the TNLA, KIA, MNDAA, and SSPP. Following the 1027 offensive the ethnic armed organizations that make up the Three Brotherhood Alliance have seen their political power increase which has exposed increasing factionalism between the groups fighting the junta.
The AA’s Impact on Myanmar’s National Politics
The Arakan Army (AA) began its conflict with the Myanmar military around 2015 in northern Rakhine, escalating significantly between late 2018 and November 2020, resulting in nearly 1,000 deaths and the displacement of over 230,000 civilians. A temporary ceasefire in November 2020 was followed by renewed fighting in February 2022 after the AA rejected military peace talks. By late 2022, over 100 battles occurred, particularly in Maungdaw and along the Kaladan River. In November 2023, the AA, teaming up with the Three Brotherhood Alliance, captured military posts and by early 2025 had taken control of 10 out of 17 townships in Rakhine, surrounding Sittwe and disrupting Chinese-backed projects, highlighting their growing influence in the region. The AA’s territorial gains also extended into neighboring Chin State and parts of Magwe Region, driven by coordinated operations with local PDFs and Chin Brotherhood.
Prospects for Development in Rakhine State
The Arakan Army is rapidly changing the landscape of Rakhine State in Myanmar through significant military successes. The region of Rakhine holds significant interests for neighboring countries such as the Kaladan Project is crucial for India’s connectivity to Southeast Asia, while China is heavily invested in the Kyaukphyu projects and oil and gas pipelines, which strengthen its influence and ensure access to the Indian Ocean for strategic positioning. By 2025, the AA has driven most State Administration Council (SAC) forces out, achieving control from north to south, successfully besieging Sittwe and the Kyaukphyu naval base, and expanding operations into Magwe, western Bago, and the Irrawaddy Delta. Nevertheless, the AA/ULA faces several challenges, including military consolidation, humanitarian and development issues, intercommunal dilemmas, and international dimension. Their impressive accomplishments are especially notable in the context of ongoing SAC airstrikes and blockades that they confront. The AA continues to assert its influence in strategic towns such as Sittwe and Kyaukphyu while collaborating with allied groups like the Student Armed Force (SAF) on central Myanmar offensives. Although they have signed agreements such as the Haigeng Agreement, the AA’s military operations persist, showcasing their ability to adapt and implement multiple strategies simultaneously.
Sources
https://www.rfa.org/english/myanmar/2024/11/27/arakan-army-explainer-rakine
https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-column/the-uncertain-future-of-myanmars-rakhine-state.html
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