ASEAN POLITICAL-SECURITY COMMUNITY 2015
‘THAILAND’S CHALLENGES AND ASEAN 2015’
7 May 2014
The Human Development Forum Foundation held its 4th Chairman’s Circle of the Year, co-hosted with the Asia Foundation, on the 7th of May 2014, at Imperial Queen’s Park Hotel, Bangkok. The event was titled ‘Thailand’s Challenges and ASEAN 2015’, with dialogue focused on the current political turmoil in Thailand. The event explored issues such as the roots and effects of the crisis, and the subsequent impact it is having on Thailand’s integration into ASEAN by 2015. HDFF invited three panel speakers who provided insightful analysis and knowledge into their areas of expertise and encouraged much thoughtful discussion into Thailand’s deeper issues.
After the welcoming remarks by HDFF’s Chairman, General (ret.) Bunchon Chawansin, and the Asia Foundation’s Country Representative, Mr. Kim McQuay, the three panelists set forth to present on their topics for the day to an auditorium of 54 people, including the Ambassadors from the Delegation of the European Union, the Republic of Argentine, the Republic of Chile, and the Republic of Korea. Dr. Wilfried A. Herrmann, Executive Director of HDFF, moderated the event.
Dr. Thanet Aphornsuvan, Head of ASEAN Studies Department, Thammasat University, was the first panel speaker of the day and presented on the ‘Social Roots and Effects of the Crisis’. He focused on the historical and social roots of Thailand’s current political turmoil, exploring the social change which the country has been witnessing since World War I. He discussed the historically ‘docile’ Thai middle classes who have generally had very weak political roles, ruled by the bureaucratic polity and dominated by the military. The 1973 Student Revolution, however, gave way to a new constitution and a new emerging understanding of democracy. In this concept, the dominant role of the Monarchy was heavily reduced, but the sovereignty still remained in its hands. The old elites remained, who side-stepped economic reform and continued the culture of status and gentry. Only very recently, when Thaksin came to power, did the government compete with royal powers and the status quo. And now the (previous) parliamentarian opposition and street protestors are asking for an unelected ‘People’s Council’ under Article 7 of the constitution, which Thanet argues is simply not possible – nowhere in the constitution would allow this.
As far as the effects of the crisis go, Dr. Thanet stated that the economy is sinking every day and will take years to recover from the damage and extent of local impact. He explored factors such as the country’s development policy and the further polarised Thai society, and asks the very important question of exactly what kind of democracy the people of Thailand want? Thus far two solutions have been given. Number one is the PDRC’s proposed People’s Council and the appointed government to initiate the reform movement. Number two is the Pheu Thai and United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship’s (UDD) proposed change through elections according to the constitution, with normal checks and balances, courts and others such as the Human Rights Commission, and elections and the voice of the masses.
The second panelist speaker of the day was Dr. Michael Nelson, Head of the M.A. program in Southeast Asian Studies, Walailak University. He presented on ‘Thailand’s Turmoil: an Insider/Outsider View’, and began by putting forth two challenges for Thailand. The first was to democratise the Democrat-dominated South of Thailand, and the second was to democratise the idea of nation and monarchy. In respect to the first point, he discussed the dominance of the Democrat Party in the South, and that supporters often have little respect for opinions deviating from their own. This lead to the blocking of polling stations in the February 4th election, and the idea that opposition are non-educated and undeserving of a vote. He argued that the Democrat Party has established a degree of ideological hegemony over the past 40 years, and it has therefore been very easy for the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) to mobilise support there.
In regards to the second point, he discusses the three pillars in the official Thai state ideology – the Nation, Religion, and the Monarchy. He explains that ever since 1973, Thailand has been struggling with the notion of hierarchical power versus popular sovereignty, but that now newer political forms are competing with the older system/apparatus of the military and civil servants, i.e. democracy, constitutionalism, and the representative system. The country needs to abandon the hierarchical model of the political order and welcome the political inclusion of the population.
Our final panelist speaker was Dr. Kitti Prasirtsuk, Director at the Institute of East Asian Studies, Thammasat University. He presented on ‘Thailand’s Turmoil and Impact on ASEAN Preparedness’, focusing on the the way that Thailand’s domestic political problems are causing challenges for ASEAN integration. Dr. Kitty explained that in order for the goal of ASEAN integration to be met by 2015, many aspects have to be fulfilled by each country, but without an effective government Thailand will fail to reach these goals, and to take up its leadership position. Thailand’s ministries have been greatly weakened in the ongoing conflict, and efforts to harmonise and streamline regulations with other ASEAN member states have stalled.
Dr. Kitti argued that these problems will become increasingly difficult if Thailand cannot solve its problems by the 3rd quarter of this year. The government must focus on compromising and working together with opposition to solve internal problems, and then by the 2nd quarter of next year it must focus on fulfilling its remaining ASEAN commitments, otherwise it will become very difficult to complete them by the deadline of 31 December 2015. He briefly discussed the current powers struggles in Thailand, arguing that we must be careful not to oversimplify the different political sides. Not all Yellow Shirts are royalists and middle-class, many are from normal classes, and are merely anti-corruption. Similarly, not all Red Shirts are lower class, but receive support from a broader base, including many in the upper middle class.
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The event ended with some questions and answers to the panelists and further discussion surrounding issues of the changing nature of the protest movement, the politicisation of previously marginalised societal groups, and the need to abandon the concept of the ‘ignorant voter’. Dr. Wilfried A. Herrmann commented further on current political issues and provided thanks to the speakers for giving the audience new perspectives on regional and historical aspects of Thailand’s political turmoil.
All in all, the day was incredibly interesting, and HDFF is convinced that this event left the attendants feeling more aware of the political situation in Thailand. Many familiar faces joined, who HDFF would like to thank for their continued support. There were also many new faces, from different organisations, including over 10 embassies, who HDFF would also like to thank for attending, and invite them all to return early June for our 5th Chairman’s Circle of the year, which will be focusing on outside perspectives towards ASEAN.