Since the 2021 coup, Northern Shan State in Myanmar has been a battleground for control, with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) like the MNDAA and TNLA fighting for dominance. The region, including the strategic city of Lashio, has been central to this struggle. In April 2025, following intense pressure from China, the MNDAA was compelled to surrender Lashio to the Myanmar military junta, marking a significant shift in the conflict.
EAO Control and the Handover of Lashio
In northern Shan State, Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) such as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Arakan Army (AA) formed the Three Brotherhood Alliance and launched Operation 1027 in late 2023. This offensive led to the capture of several key towns from the Myanmar military, significantly weakening its control in the region. The EAOs took control of multiple towns, including key border crossings with China. On August 3, 2024, the MNDAA captured Lashio, holding it for over 8 months until the city was handed back to the junta following intense fighting with Myanmar’s military forces.
The Military’s Return to Lashio
Myanmar’s military regime administrative staff re-entered Lashio, the capital of Northern Shan State, after the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) withdrew on April 21, 2025. The MNDAA, alongside allied resistance forces, had taken control of the city in August 2024 following a month-long battle. However, under pressure from the Chinese government, the MNDAA agreed to retreat by April 21, 2025. As a result, the MNDAA began pulling out its troops and officials from Lashio, while the regime’s government departments, including general administration, health, education, immigration, military intelligence, and military representatives, returned to resume their functions. Some junta administrative staff, who were previously responsible in Lashio still remain in Taunggyi and have not yet been instructed to return, indicating a delay in their reassignment.
China’s Influence on Northern Shan State
China has played a significant role in shaping the political and military dynamics of Northern Shan State, particularly through its involvement in ceasefire agreements and its influence over both the Myanmar junta and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). In April 2025, China sent a ceasefire monitoring team to northern Myanmar after MNDAA withdrew from the strategic city of Lashio, which had been under their control since August 2024. As a neighboring power, China has longstanding ties with rebel groups operating in the region including the MNDAA which controls part of Northern Shan State.In January 2025, the talk held in Southern Chinese city of Kunming, China brokered a ceasefire agreement between Myanmar military and MNDAA, facilitating the handover of Lashio to the junta.
Current Holder in Northern Shan State
Since the 2021 coup, authority over Northern Shan State in Myanmar has been fragmented and contested. While the Myanmar military junta has regained partial control of Lashio, the region is still largely dominated by various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) are the primary forces controlling significant portions of the state. The MNDAA, part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, maintains control over a large area, including more than 450 villages. Similarly, the TNLA holds several townships in the region, such as Namkham, Namhsan, Mantong, Kutkai, Namtu, and Mong Ngaw, following their successful first phase of Operation 1027. The recent handover of Lashio to the junta was part of a ceasefire agreement brokered by China, highlighting China’s influence in the region. However, this shift does not signal a complete change in control, as the majority of the territory in Northern Shan State continues to be governed by EAOs.
KNDF React to Lashio’s Return to Junta Control
The chairman of the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) called on resistance groups to unite and reclaim Lashio City, following China’s pressure on the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) to surrender control of the city to the junta. This retreat, completed by April 21, 2025, as part of a deal made by China, was considered a painful loss, especially since many fighters gave their lives to free the city. Despite this, KNDF chairman, Khun Bedu described the retreat as a temporary setback and vowed to work with resistance forces to retake Lashio when the opportunity arises. The MNDAA’s withdrawal followed negotiations in Kunming, China, in January 2025. Critics argue that China’s actions broke its pledge not to interfere in Myanmar’s internal matters, but Chinese officials defended their involvement, stating they respected Myanmar’s sovereignty and aimed to support the peace process.
Future Implications for Northern Shan State
The future of Lashio and Northern Shan State depends largely on the power struggle between the military junta and the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). Even though the junta has regained control of Lashio, the region is still heavily influenced by various ethnic groups seeking greater autonomy and rights. The recent call from the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) for resistance groups to unite and take back the city highlights ongoing tensions and the potential for renewed conflict. Additionally, external influences, especially from China, will likely continue to affect the stability and governance of the area as these political and military dynamics change.
Sources
https://www.rfa.org/english/myanmar/2025/04/22/mndaa-lashio-junta
https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/kndf-vows-lashio-city-will-be-retaken-junta
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