Myanmar Security Analysis: March 2024

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By Lila Bernard*

Renewed International Interest and General Comments:

March 2024 marks 3 years and one month since the beginning of the civil war following the Military Coup in Myanmar. As the fighting continues between Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs), the Myanmar Armed Forces, and other resistance groups, the advances made by the resistance are becoming more obvious every day.
Resistance organizations have shown an impressive amount of joint planning and fighting to take down their enemy in the country’s east. As such, this month saw intense fighting between resistance forces and the Myanmar military to take over the cities of Hsiseng and Hopong in Shan State and the Myawaddy border city in Kayin State.
International Actors have taken a more active role in the situation with the opening of the Thai humanitarian corridor, supported by ASEAN, through the Mae Sot-Myawaddy border crossing on March 25th. The aid is supposed to benefit 20.000 people at first, mostly internally displaced citizens fleeing fighting and violence. [1] Additionally, at the beginning of the month, the Thai Parliament received members of the opposition and the NUG for a seminar. This move shows the growing openness the Thai institution is showing towards the opposition to the junta as the situation is seen as shifting on the ground. [2]
The worsening condition of the Myanmar Armed Forces has been made increasingly noticeable by the conscription law [3] and reports of large numbers of citizens fleeing from conscription (167 of them were arrested by February 22nd in Thailand).

Internal Displacement:


The situation for civilians has been particularly dire as the UNHCR reports that the number of Internally Displaced People (IDPs) in the southeast part of the country has gotten bigger throughout the month, starting from 803.800 in the first week, 811.200 in the second week, and culminating at 820.900 in the third week of March. [4]

Fighting and Attacks:


In Kayah State, the city of Hpasawng saw fighting at the beginning of the month, between the Myanmar military, local People’s Defense Forces, and Karenni Forces from March 1st until March 5th. Airstrikes by the military followed the battles and at least five IDPs were killed and 20 civilians injured. By the end of the fighting, the resistance forces took over the local police station.
Other acts of violence were committed by the army such as Airstrikes on Loikaw and Hpruso township on March 1st and a mine planted by the army that took the life of a citizen in Ngwe Taung Ywar Thit village.
Kayin State has also seen a great amount of violence as fighting took place between resistance groups and the Myanmar military.
In Kyaikdon town; from the 12th to the 14th, a combined force of resistance groups attacked the Myanmar military and claimed to have taken over their base. The resistance forces also took over a considerable amount of weapons. On March 15th and 19th, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), People Defense Forces (PDFs), and Special Operation Force (SOF) attacked the Me Tha Yaw Hta military station where they captured a soldier and weapons and finally claimed to have taken over the station by the afternoon of the 19th of March.

Not far from Kyaikdon, in Kyanseikgyi and Mi Tan village the Myanmar military launched airstrikes on the 15th and 16th of March.
In the Myawaddy district, fighting took place between resistance groups (Karen National Liberation Army [KNLA], the Cobra Column, and the PDF) and the Myanmar Military on the Myawaddy-Kawkhareik highway, starting from the 7th of March. This battle saw the use of artillery rounds and airstrikes by the Myanmar military, killing at least two citizens. Airstrikes were also reported in Me Ka Nei Lan village, 20 minutes away from Thin Gan Nyi Naung on the night of the 12th of March as well as on the 11th and 15th of March in Kawkareik town. The fighting also caused damage to the adjacent housing area.

By the 15th of March, the resistance forces attacked a military base in Thin Gan Nyu Naung not far from the highway, and claimed to have taken over the military base by the evening.

In Hsihseng [5] Township, Shan state battles between the Pa-Oh National Liberation Army (PNLA) and the Myanmar Military led to the displacement of residents into forests. Airstrikes took place starting from the 1st of March. By the 4th, there was the firing of weapons between the Pa-Oh National Liberation Army (PNLA) and the Myanmar military as the battle was intensifying. Drone strikes and artillery rounds followed in the following days. Significant damage was instilled upon houses, markets, and religious buildings throughout the city. The use of chemical weapons was also reported and injured members of the PNLA. Battles continued between the two sides from the 11th until the 21st of March.
In the neighboring town of Hopong, the firing of missiles from the military started on the first of March and continued until clashes took place in the neighboring village in Pin Sang between the Myanmar Military and the PNLA on the 10th of March.


*Lila Bernard is a Research Fellow at HDFF.

[1] Kiana Duncan (25/04/2024) Thailand’s first aid convoy arrives in Myanmar https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/thai-myanmar-aid-03252024023335.html

[2] RFA Burmese/ Benar News (07/03/2024) Thai seminar with exiled Myanmar leaders signals shift in stance, say analysts https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/thai/thai-seminar-on-myanmar-angers-junta-03072024041945.html

[3] Helen Regan (21/02/2024) ‘I don’t want to kill’: Conscription law sparks fear in war-torn Myanmar https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/22/asia/myanmar-mandatory-conscription-fears-young-people-intl-hnk-dst/index.html

[4] UNHCR (24/03/2024) South East Myanmar UNHCR Displacement Overview 18 Mar 2024 https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/details/107478

[5] The Irrawaddy (15/03/2024) Myanmar Junta Shells Pa-O Towns in Southern Shan State https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-shells-pa-o-towns-in-southern-shan-state.html

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