By: Héloise Le Guellec*
March is an important period of the year for the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). This year’s History Month of Bangsamoro carries the theme “ Commemorating the history for a stronger, enduring, and resilient Bangsamoro”1, celebrating the 10th anniversary of the Comprehensive Agreement of Bangsamoro (CAB) ending the decades-old conflict in Mindanao. In addition, in 2024 Ramadan started on the 12th of March, this Muslim celebration is often instrumentalized and ends up being an intense and sensitive time in the peace process.
BARMM Transition Government promotes peacebuilding and development programs during BARMM’s History Month
While the BARMM government tries to make peace and stability durable, one of the major goals is the region’s disarmament and former fighters surrendering – as well as re-integration policy. In honor of the International Day of Small and Light Weapons Anti-proliferation, PH President Marcos visited Basilan on March 3rd, to witness the destruction of 550 weapons collected by local executives in Basilan2. This ceremony took place in the former Abu Sayyaf Group Bastians, a good sign that “peace is spreading in Basilan now”. This project marked another milestone in establishing a new system that aims to reduce privately owned SALWs and support the socio-economic development of residents in target communities in Basilan Province, jointly selected by MILF and the PH Government.
The authorities also held other actions to improve social harmony. The 18th Infantry (Deo et Patria) Battalion under the leadership of COL CYRIL SANTANDER together with the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), Strategic Communications and Capacity Building (SCCB) Project, has launched the “Kambollayoka Peace Basketball Series.”3 This innovative initiative aims to strengthen relationships between the Government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), promoting camaraderie and a shared commitment to peace.
In Patikul (Sulu), Governor Abdulsakur Tan incited the leaders of the province to maintain lasting peace to increase the possibilities of public aid development, citing the coastal road project of Sulu, which will soon reach the city of Patikul enabling people and goods to travel around more easily.4
Tensions rise in Maguindanao between BIFF and AFP during Ramadan
While other provinces of BARMM are implementing peace and stability programs, Mindanao del Sur experienced a very tense month. After killing three important members of BIFF-Karialan throughout the months, the authorities were the target of the militant’s retaliation, including ambushes, bombing, and shooting.
On March 4th, in Baranguay Pidsandawan, Mamasapano, Maguindanao del Sur, a BIFF militant was killed in a joint operation (Military / Police), a second one got arrested, and the other members escaped.
On March 9th, in Baranguay Kitango, Datu Saudi-Ampatuan, Maguindanao del Sur, Abdul Kader Animbang, and Hamidi Animbamg, respectively the brother and the nephew of BIFF-Karialan leader Kagi Karialan were killed by the militaries.
Karialan said in mid-February to his followers not to attack government troops during Ramadan. He revoked his order and launched attacks in retaliation to persistent military offensives. As a response, BIFF led many attacks during the second half of March.
On March 14th, in Pagalungan, Maguindanao del Sur, Roberto Dela Cruz Desierto, Jr., an off-duty soldier assigned at Datu-Saudi Ampatuan was wounded in the neck in an ambush with a civilian companion, by pistol-wielding BIFF Militant.
On March 16th, in Datu Salibo Town, Maguindanao del Sur, BIFF-K militants led a raid on a military patrol base; two soldiers were wounded.
On March 17th in Datu Hoffer Ampatuan, Maguindanao del Sur, four soldiers from the 40th Infantry Battalion died in an ambush orchestrated by members of BIFF-Karialan.5 This ambush happened in retaliation for a military operation against this terrorist group on December 2nd, 2023, in the same city, killing eleven BIFF militants. This clash led to the displacement of, at least, 24 Teduray households.
Also on March 17th, in Shariff Saydona Mustapha town, Maguindanao del Sur, an explosion targeted the compound of a police station.
On March 18th, a BIFF faction recognized most of the March attacks and threatened to launch more against the government.
On March 22nd, in Datu Saudi Ampatuan, Maguindanao del Sur, Government troops killed Abu Halil, the faction training chief. Halil is also the brother of Khadaf Abdulatif, the group’s chief of staff. This happened barely a week after BIFF-Karialan threats.
What to expect:
At the regional level, local authorities may face a rise in tensions and violent events in the next weeks or months, more specifically with BIFF-Karialan. On the other hand, other branches of BIFF and Dawlah Islamiyah remained particularly calm. Authorities have stepped up security protocols with more patrols and checkpoints in critical areas as well as enforcing a gun ban that is starting to be implemented slowly in the 63 barangays by the Special Geographic Area; it started on March 14th and will last until April 20th.
Risk of escalation in the West Philippines Sea: Anthony Blinken and PR Marcos Jr. increase their cooperation in response to China’s aggressive behavior
On March 5th, Chinese and Philippines coast guard vessels collided in the West Philippines Sea while ASEAN leaders were meeting in Melbourne to tackle Beijing’s aggressive maritime behavior. This occurred during a RoRe (rotation and resupply) mission on the BRP Sierra Madre on the Second Thomas Shoal – known locally as Ayungin Shoal. Not long after the collision, another Chinese Coast Guard collided with the supply boat that Filipino Coast Guards were escorting.
The supply boat was later hit by a water cannon blast from two Chinese ships, and 4 Filipino crew members were injured. Chinese Coast Guard struck again on March 23rd on a Filipino resupply vessel UM4 (Unaizah May 4) causing “significant damages to the vessels” as well as injuring its crew.
American Ambassador in the Philippines reacted on “X” – former Twitter– standing on Manila’s side. Moreover, Antony Blinken the secretary of the United States met Pr. Marcos Jr to enhance security and strategic economic field partnerships. Pr. Marcos Jr. will meet with Pr. Biden as well as Japan’s leader in April in Washington DC to hold the first trilateral leaders summit. Regional leaders, as well as experts, are beginning to question the deterrent effect of the MDT (Mutual Defense Treaty) and what it would take to activate its effects, while Pekin is still benefiting from the ‘Gray Zones’ of international law.
*Héloise Le Guellec is a Research Fellow at HDFF.
[5] Drama Q.Bravo (17/03/2024) 4 soldiers die in an ambush in MagSur. NDBC News. https://www.ndbcnews.com.ph/news/4-soldiers-die-ambush-magsur%C2%A0