Summary
In politics, Yingluck Shinawatra has been removed from her position as caretaker prime minister for the abuse of power charge. ASEAN has urged reconciliation in Thai politics adhering to democratic policy. The PDRC will move to the Government House for its last decisive battle. Protesters have left rally sites at major Thai television stations. Suthep and supporters marched to parliament to demand interim prime minister, while the legality of such an action remains heavily questioned. CAPO has decided to pursue the arrest of PDRC party members already facing arrest charges. UDD urged by leader Jatuporn to restrain from violence through the unrest.
In security, no major changes are foreseen in NSC’s southern security approach. Attacks continue in Yala and Narathiwat provinces killing one. Hat Yai bombs incite tourism drop. Security measures are planned to be heighted in Narathiwat province for teachers. Rangsit University was recently targeted. Military will boost security at rally sites throughout Bangkok.
In economics, Thailand’s current political turmoil is having negative effects on Thailand’s economic situation, as investor and consumer confidence has been badly damaged, particularly since the ousting of Yingluck and her Cabinet members on May 7. In addition to this, Thailand’s tourism sector has taken a blow as travel warnings are being issued around the world, and concerns have been expressed that the country will not meet its target of 2 trillion Baht in tourism revenue. In other news, an ASEAN summit was held on May 11 in Myanmar, in which leaders discussed the remaining requirements member states must fulfill for the establishment of the ASEAN community in 2015.
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(Bangkok Post)
Politics
On May 7 Yingluck Shinawatra was ousted from the position of caretaker prime minister. She was found guilty of abusing power by transferring former security chief Thawil Pliensri and installing her brother-in-law in 2011. July 20 elections were confirmed by the caretaker government and appointed caretaker prime minister, former Commerce Minister, Niwatthamrong Bunsongphaisan. Her removal and opposition protests and blockades in the capital have brought increasing numbers of pro-government supporters into the outskirts of the city. (Aljazeera News)
On Sunday at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) summit in Myanmar, ASEAN voiced its view on the matter of unrest in Thailand. The ASEAN members have a long established relationship of non-interference. In this situation, ministers must also avoid misinterpretation or perceived favoritism by the opposing Thai parties. However, the group adopted a suggestion of Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Sen to address Thailand’s political situation. The recommendation urges conflicting Thai political parties to end the crisis peacefully and with full attention paid to democratic law and principles. It stated the importance of national reconciliation and restoring order and normalcy in line with the interests of the Thai people. This statement was very similar to a statement made in December in Tokyo at the ASEAN-Japan summit. (The Nation, Bangkok Post)
The People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) closed its Lumpini Park rally site on Monday and moved to Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge. The new location is close to the Government House where Suthep has been granted the ability to house the PDRC office in Santi Maitree Building within the Government House compound. Upon entering the Government House with demonstrators on Saturday May 10, Suthep negotiated with soldiers who were guarding the building and was given the permission. This action can be seen as a show of PDRC power over the caretaker government, as the Santi Maitree Building houses the offices of the prime minister and cabinet members. Hopes of the PDRC are to turn the building into a people’s government coordinating center. Suthep has stated that he will hold meetings with any group, make future announcements from and set up his office in the building. Protestors won’t be allowed in the compound, only select PDRC staff. (The Nation, Bangkok Post)
PDRC Protesters who were rallying at the five major Thai television stations returned to their respective rallying sites. Protesters withdrew Sunday from Channels 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11 television stations. Most were called to return to Lumpini Park after their several days’ encampment at the stations before joining Suthep near Government House at Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge. (Bangkok Post)
Suthep has stated that the PDRC will be joined by its allies from the Network of Students and People for Reform of Thailand (NSPRT) and the Dharma Army at the Government House. The groups have decided to build a new stage in front of the United Nations Building. Suthep along with PDRC supporters plan to march to parliament on Monday to see if the Senate speaker is “able to meet our demand to select a new prime minister of the people.” Suthep also stated, “If not, we will do it ourselves.” Suthep has said that he will move back to Surat Thani if the PDRC wins the last round of rallies, but if he loses, people can visit him in jail. (The Nation, Bangkok Post)
The Centre for the Administration of Peace and Order (Capo) decided Thursday to indict 51 PDRC figures who already face arrest. Of these figures, 14 are core members of the PDRC party, including Suthep himself. Once arrest warrants are issued, following a court hearing on Monday, Capo will begin the arrest process and will request that the Anti-Money Laundering Office (Amlo) freezes the 14 PDRC leaders’ assets. Policing for the arrest operation which will be broken up into 14 teams will be provided by the Arintharat Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) unit. Meanwhile, on Saturday, the Democrat Party stated that the caretaker government’s Capo should be dissolved and its responsibilities handed over to impartial groups. This call to dissolve the agency is based on Democrat Party claims that Capo is not keeping peace and order in the country, has questioned the Constitutional Court and threatened people. (Bangkok Post)
Leader of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), Jatuporn Prompan, has called Suthep’s proposal unconstitutional and stated that he is setting up for a coup. However, the red-shirt leaders have urged restraint among followers even through perceived provocation by the PDRC. Jatuporn has said the UDD is ready to defend the government for as long as needed. The UDD party continues to span a 4 km stretch of Aksa Road. Jatuporn stated that the leadership of the Senate needs to be questioned. Surachai Liangboonlertchai was elected Speaker of the Senate Friday evening by the Senate. Noppadon Pattama, a member of the Pheu Thai party affairs committee, has stated several reasons to question the legitimacy of the Speaker’s election since it was not a part of the meeting’s original agenda and has yet to receive royal endorsement to allow him to act in government. Noppadon also said that Suthep’s call for the Election Commission, Senate speaker and presidents of the Supreme Court, Supreme Administrative Court and Constitutional Court to push for a new prime minister is undemocratic and unconstitutional according to various laws. In addition, the movement faces many roadblocks. A senior judge even stated Sunday that there is no provision in the law giving judges the power to choose a new prime minister. (The Nation, Bangkok Post)
(Bangkok Post)
Security
National Security Council (NSC) secretary-general, Thawil Pliensri, visited the deep South of Thailand on Sunday. However, no changes to the government’s security plan were revealed as were expected. In late April, he had stated that one of his first priorities after being reinstated was to review southern security policy. He said the purpose of the visit was primarily to boost morale among local authorities and that the three-year security policy created under the Yingluck administration was unlikely to change since it follows the NSC’s policy of promoting an environment favorable to peace building. He stated that all agencies must work together, while the military will focus on security. A recent public forum held by Prince of Songkla University (PSU), Pattani campus and the College of Deep South Watch highlighted the importance of residents reaching an agreement of what they wanted before the peace process begins. (Bangkok Post)
On Sunday Night, Narathiwat and Yala provinces were hit by bomb and militant-style attacks. Three attacks in Sungai Kolok district of Narathiwat took place, one killing a woman and injuring several others. Tak Bai district reported two bombs and Sungai Padi district reported several fires. In Yala, bombs destroyed electricity poles in Yaha district. Muang and Than To districts experienced several bomb blasts. Gun attacks were reported in Krong Pinang and Bannang Sata districts. Police did not reveal major details, but stated the attacks were a coordinated effort. (Bangkok Post)
Tourists have avoided Hat Yai after two bombs exploded in the city centre on Tuesday May 6. The bombs injured eight people, two police and six civilians. Since the incident hotels have seen a 30 percent decrease in bookings through cancellations in the commercial area. (Bangkok Post)
Local security officials in Narathiwat’s Cho Airong district held a meeting on Thursday, May 8 to address increasing security for southern teachers before the term begins next week. Teachers are increasingly becoming targets of insurgents. Representatives from 22 schools participated in the meeting which discussed arranging security on transportation routes used to and from the schools and increased security at schools during opening and closing hours. (Bangkok Post)
The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has condemned a killing of a pregnant woman on Tuesday, April 29. The woman, Jariya Promnuan, was a senior public health official married to a local police officer, she was two months pregnant. A female colleague that was with her was also shot and seriously wounded. The NHRC issued a statement on May 1 demanding that those who committed the crime cease violent activities against the defenseless as it is illegal and a human rights violation. The NHRC urged more efficient security actions from the government. The commission also urged citizens and local communities to look out for potential threats and for all agencies to seek solutions to build peace in the area. The NHRC vowed to continue working on the situation, monitor the work of authority officials and coordinate with other groups that are assisting those affected by the violence. (Bangkok Post)
On Sunday, a building at Rangsit University in Pathum Thani was hit by a M79 grenade. No one was injured according to Pathum Thani police chief. The attack is believed to be symbolic, not intended to injure or kill, and thought to be politically-related. (Bangkok Post)
Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha stated that the military would intervene in the political situation only as a last resort. Former leader of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), Sondhi Limthongkul, has urged the military to take action so pressure is not placed on the King to choose sides. Maj Gen Apirat Khongsompong has stated the military plans only to deploy soldiers to locations throughout Bangkok to aid the increasing unrest at the Government House, parliament and television stations. He also said that the military is working with the Centre for the Administration of Peace and Order (Capo) and that soldiers sent to areas along with Capo police are unarmed. An army source said Gen Prayuth has ordered troops to various locations to prevent violence, especially at night, including the PDRC demonstration sites, the UDD rally site on Aksa Road and television stations. (Bangkok Post)
(MCOT Public Company Limited)
Economics
Since the Court’s decision to remove Yingluck and her nine cabinet members from government on May 7, many concerns have been stated about the economic impact this will have on the country’s economy. Moody, the credit-rating agency, commented that the move to remove Yingluck will negatively affect Thailand’s financial situation as it risks prolonging the political conflict further, which will in turn negatively affect both consumer and investor confidence in the country. Foreign chambers and business circles have also been voicing their concerns, believing that if Thailand fails to form an effective government by the end of the year, they will miss opportunities of new investment. The stock exchange index (SET) has also taken a hit due to the political turmoil in the capital and around, falling from above 1,420 to below 1,380 in the first week of May. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
Foreign credit ratings by foreign countries are being affected by the political vacuum with, for example, Japan, lowering its rating from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’ in recent weeks. Thailand may be overtaken and marginalized by competitors such as Vietnam and Indonesia in economic development, particularly in terms of signing the free trade agreement (FTA) with the European Union. It is also evident, however, that the country will continue to benefit from the existing foreign companies who will remain active despite political uncertainty, due to Thailand’s business potential for foreign investors, particularly in regards to automobiles, oil and gas, construction industries and communications technology companies. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
Thailand’s tourism revenue target of 2 trillion baht is at risk of not being met, should the political turmoil not end soon. Embassies around the world are issuing new travel warnings for Thailand – the Indian Embassy issued a warning on Friday 9 May advising travellers to be extra cautious and avoid certain at risk-areas, and as a result cancellations are expected to rise by around 30%, said the Business Standard. In the first quarter of this year Indian tourism dropped by 16.76%, Japan dropped by 22.5%, and Malaysia 15.76%. The Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) has urged the government to invest large sums of money into boosting tourism and the image of Thailand as a holiday destination, after reports of travel agencies selling tours to other destinations following Thailand’s political unrest. (The Bangkok Post)
The ASEAN leaders convened in Myanmar on May 11, where they discussed issues surrounding the establishment of the ASEAN community by 2015. They discussed the progress needed to decrease the gap in development between member states, and reiterated the need to build upon the existing initiatives such as the Ha Noi Declaration for Narrowing the Development Gap for Closer ASEAN Integration (2001). Concerns are mounting, however, that the process of integration will not meet its targets by next year, as planned, due to the failure of effectively harmonising regulations amongst the 10 member states. Thailand will also have trouble taking up its leadership role without an effective government, and is stalling in efforts to fulfill its remaining requirements due to the focus on its domestic political problems. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand).
After losing much of its rice trade in Hong Kong to Vietnam, due to Vietnam’s price competitiveness in the past few years, Thailand is now striving to retake its position as top rice supplier. Witt Maneenetr, trade commissioner of the Thai Trade Centre in Hong Kong, stated that they expect Thailand’s share of the rice trade in Hong Kong to reach 60% this year – an improvement on last year’s 54%, but still far behind its highest ever point of 90%. It currently stands at around 50%. Hong Kong is one of Thailand’s biggest rice markets, which was worth US$320 million last year. To regain its top-place Thailand’s commerce industry will invite over ten of the largest traders in the city to attend the “Thaifex-World of Food Asia” fair, from May 21-25. Thailand has launched a three to five-year strategy plan which they hope will increase their market share to 70-80%. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
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